US GENERAL ELECTIONS: BATTLE FOR WHITE HOUSE
ELECTORAL MAP FINAL RELEASE
Geek God Review electoral map generated with the help of 270towin. We cross-referenced available polls and election data (Emerson, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen) to come up with our electoral map, with studies of electoral results from 1964 (Lyndon Johnson vs Barry Goldwater) to 2012 (Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney).
Hillary Clinton will carry 23 states with a total of 298 electoral votes against Donald Trump’s 240 electoral votes, carrying 25 states. Trump gets the traditional Democrat states of Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Iowa.
BATTLE GROUND STATES
Here are the current polls data from the battle ground states:
Colorado: Clinton +5
Ohio: Trump +1
Georgia: Trump +2
Florida: Clinton +1
New Hampshire: Trump +1
Nevada: Trump +6
Pennsylvania: Clinton +2
North Carolina: Trump +5
New Mexico: Clinton +5
Arizona: Trump +5
From the predicted final electoral map, here are the alternative scenarios come election night:
Florida to Trump
If Trump gets Florida, the electoral votes will be 269-269, and the vote will go to House of Representatives. Trump wins.
Pennsylvania and Colorado to Trump
If Trump gets both Pennsylvania and Colorado, the electoral votes will also be 269-269, and the vote will go to House of Representatives. Trump wins.
Florida, Pennsylvania and Colorado to Trump
If Trump gets Florida, Pennsylvania and Colorado, the electoral votes will also be 298-240. Trump wins.
Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina to Clinton
If Clinton will get North Carolina, the electoral votes will be 323-215. Clinton wins.
We’ve calculated the projected popular votes the candidates could be getting come November by gathering the voters turn out data from 2012 general elections and getting the percentage based on the various current available polling data.
Clinton has a 5% lead nationally, 46% to 41% to Trump. The projected votes of Trump would be around 50 million, Clinton will get around 56.9 million. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson will get around 5.26% of the projected votes (around 6.5million). Jill Stein could get around 3.1 million votes (2.49%).