US GENERAL ELECTIONS: BATTLE FOR WHITE HOUSE
ELECTORAL MAP RELEASE NO.6
(Geek God Review electoral map generated with the help of 270towin. We cross-referenced available polls and election data to come up with our electoral map, with studies of 2008 and 2012 electoral results; Obama-McCain and Obama-Romney)
Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
The color in the electoral map is getting more solid as we approach the crucial stretch of the campaign. Hillary Clinton gets 273 electoral votes (enough to secure the elections) against 164 of Donald Trump with 15 electoral votes leaning for Clinton, 11 to Trump and unchanged 75 contested electoral votes from 5 battle ground states of Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, Georgia and Florida. Clinton carries 25 states against 22 of Trump.
We’re still down to five battle ground states from our last prediction. Trump scored some big win today as Arizona is now leaning to him from previous data which showed the state leaning towards Clinton. We decided that Arizona should be leaning towards Trump although data shows a close fight (Trump +3) because it is traditionally a Republican leaning state. Aside from Arizona, five states solidified their colors from leaning to now strong Democrats: Oregon, Minnesota and Virginia. From leaning to now strong Republican: Missouri, Kansas. Clinton gets 30 more electoral votes from our last data, 243 to 273, enough to clinch the election without winning the leaning states, though her total electoral votes (plus leaning) dropped from 299 to 288. Trump is up 16 electoral votes from 148 to 164.
CLOSE CALL STATES
North Carolina, Arizona, New Jersey and Rhode Island are states that currently , according to the polls data, are too close to call. But Geek God Review gave New Jersey and Rhode Island to Clinton because these two are traditional Democrat states and they have a +4 to +3 lead for her, except for North Carolina (with only +1 lead) which we decided to include in the leaning Democrat category (although it is a traditionally strong Democrat state) because the number is too close.
THE ROAD TO 270: HILLARY CLINTON
Right now, Clinton’s road to 270 is as clear as day with sure 273 electoral votes. She just needs to maintain her slight lead in crucial states such as New Jersey and North Carolina.
THE ROAD TO 270: DONALD TRUMP
Trump’s electoral votes rose which is a good news, the highlight of which is that it seemed that he is winning the Arizona battle. Aside from ensuring to clinch the 11 electoral votes leaning to him, he needs to win the five swing states. Polls data from Georgia and Florida are still too close and he needs to win these two crucial states, plus the other battle ground states so he could get 250 electoral votes.
We mentioned Oregon and Minnesota as key states to lower down Clinton’s electoral votes but it seemed out of reach to Trump now. As we mentioned, he could get the other states which Clinton currently has a slim lead: North Carolina (15), New Jersey (14) and Rhode Island (4). If Trump could get those three states away from Clinton, the final electoral votes count could be 283-255 in his favor.
We’ve calculated the projected popular votes the candidates could be getting come November by gathering the voters turn out data from 2012 general elections and getting the percentage based on the various current available polling data.
It’s 42% to Clinton against 40% of Trump. Trump cutting the nationwide 6% lead of Clinton to just only 2%. Clinton’s projected popular votes could be around 52.4 million against Trump’s 49 million. Gary Johnson could get around 11.3 million votes (around 9%, still not enough for him to enter the national debate) and Jill Stein could get around 4.1 million votes (3.34%).